March Madness Round 2 Day 1: The Chaos Has Begun

"And you never walk away from the table when you're on a heater" - The last piece of advice Sid Garner gave his soon-to-be son-in-law, Doug, before he departed on his bachelor party trip to Las Vegas in the 2009 comedy The Hangover. I watched that movie as a 15-year-old, impressionable young man, and I took it a gospel. Proof? My picks yesterday. After going 17-5 on the first day, anyone with some sense would pack it up and drive 4 hours southbound on the 15 freeway out of Vegas. Not I. We pressed, and, as assumed, regression crept in a little bit.

F--k it. We ball. We do not fold in the face of adversity. Just over halfway through Friday as I write this and all the favorites are covering (boring), and we're limping into the late window. A winning record on the day is still possible, and that's all we ever ask for. (update: 9-10 day yesterday. Missed the winning record because Dominique Daniels of Cal Baptist decided to put on the greatest performance in a losing effort I have ever seen. Fair play.)

As for Saturday's games, we got some potential classics and some potential stinkers. I doubt nothing we see today, tomorrow, or the rest of the tournament can possibly match the end of regulation in Santa Clara - Kentucky. I've never gotten so many texts in a 30 second span in my life. Our nation came together for all of 2 minutes, and it was glorious. Let's pray we just get something close. That was awesome. We're locked back in. Let's find some winners on Saturday.

Blog record: 26-15

Michigan (1) vs St Louis (9)

Michigan -12.5, O/U 161.5

Both teams scored over 100 points on Thursday, which we expected from Michigan, but not from St Louis. Yes we had them on the spread and they put up 114 on Principia, sure, but against the Bulldogs? Impressive. (Wait, Joe, Principia? Yes, Principia, it's a Christian Science school in Elsah Illinois with like 300 students. Fun fact, actor Robert Duval went there). As for the Wolverines, they did not look great in the first half against Howard, but figured it out and cruised late. We will say this with 1 and 2 seeds a lot this weekend, but either they take the wake up call, or they exposed a vulnerability. I've got the Wolverines in the Final Four still. They cruise again, but not because of their defense.

The Pick: Michigan -12.5 AND Over 161.5

Michigan State (3) vs Louisville (6)

MSU -4.5, O/U 150.5

We picked both of these games right on Thursday by fading Louisville and backing Sparty. I'm tempted to do the same here. But honestly, I just saw what the coach of Queens is wearing in their game against Purdue, and that just wiped my hard drive. Good thing it did, because I just re-looked at the total... 150.5, are we being serious? I had to triple check that was not 160. Both teams tend to step up the scoring in big games and have been hot offensively of late. Start your weekend of right by cheering for both teams, enjoying brunch, and a winner. We're smashing the over button again.

The Pick: Over 150.5

Duke (1) vs TCU (9)

Duke -11.5, O/U 139.5

I said it with Michigan, and I'll say it here. Does Duke take the wake up call or remain vulnerable after a close call with Siena? I think the Cameron Crazies travel across state lines for this one and give Duke an emotional edge. An emotional edge that will be tough for TCU after a thrilling win 48 hours earlier. Also, Duke is 2nd in defensive efficiency and TCU is 122nd in offensive efficiency. I do not think TCU scores enough to pull the upset, and they only get 28% of their points from 3, which ranks 243rd. Blue Devils cruise to next weekend.

The Pick: Duke -11.5

Houston (2) vs Texas A&M (10)

Houston -10.5, O/U 142.5

Bucky Ball was not in full effect in A&M's first round win over St. Mary's. An uncharacteristic 113 points caused us to miss the over call by a mile. How uncharacteristic? Consider the total for this game is 142.5. A&M has not played in a game that went under that number the ENITRE season. I'll take 31 games of data over first round jitters on a neutral court.

The Pick: Over 142.5

Gonzaga (3) vs Texas (11)

Gonzaga -5.5, O/U 147.5

Both of these teams play at a similar pace, the difference is Gonzaga has had one of the best defenses in the country all season. Despite their win vs a hobbled BYU, I think Texas is getting way too much credit here. Also, their band played "Neck" Thursday. I cannot overstate how embarrassing that is. "You should be out of a job. If you see a UT alum in the mall at Willowbrook, boo e'm, if you see em at the DMV, boo em. Don't stop booing em. If he goes to the Pro Bowl, boo em. Boo their sorry ass." Gonzaga to win this for the entire state of Louisiana.

The Pick: Gonzaga -5.5

Illinois (3) vs VCU (11)

Illinois -10.5, O/U 152.5

I got a bit of flack from Illini about my comments on their student body. Was I harsh? Maybe. Will I be any nicer here? Probably not. The good news for the boys from Champaign (really? just spell it correctly guys, this is why you can't have nice things or any semblance of athletic relevance) is their offense was COOKIN on Thrusday, and showed no signs of slowing down. VCU was able to pull an upset because UNC' top scorer was out, their second top scorer was a Center, and their third was a guard who bricks 3's for a living. Also, VCU is elite at getting to the free throw line, but Illinois fouls at the second lowest rate of all D-1 teams. Controlled demolition from Illinois in this one.

The Pick: Illinois -10.5

Nebraska (4) vs Vanderbilt (5)

Vandy -1.5, O/U 146.5

Whoever wins this game is losing in the next round. Just make a mental note of that as your work week is winding down in 5 days. As for who that will be? That depends on which Vanderbilt shows up. We've seen them beat a ton of elite teams and also lose to a ton of mediocre ones. Their highs are very high and their lows are very low. Their whole season was just Johnny Drama's character arc. This game will be close, these teams are similar in most metrics, but in a tight game I'll take the better 3-pt team and the team that will get to the free throw line at a much higher rate. It took us until the second to last game of the day, but we are finally going with an underdog. And and under. Will that mean...

The Pick: Nebraska +1.5 and Under 146.5

Arkansas (4) vs High Point (5)

Arkansas -11.5, O/U 169.5

If the one-the-court moment of the tournament so far is the Kentucky-Santa Clara ending, the off-the-court moment is the High Point student radio call of their historic first round upset. I've watched the clip of that kid who hasn't seen a comb in 6 months freak out while on the headset maybe 14 times already. It's amazing. That is what March is all about. Lucky for him though, he will not have to rebook another plane flight home on the way back from the arena Saturday. It's Cal, it's Acuff, it's the SEC champs. It's a lot to go up against and I expect High Point to be chucking early and often as their only shot to pull a shocker. It won't work though.

The Pick: Arkansas -11.5 and Over 169.5