March Madness Round 1 Day 1: Smoke 'Em If You Got 'Em

Fair Warning to all (three) of my loyal readers: My wife is pregnant with our first child, and my daughter is due to arrive any day now. So this blog probably will not make it through the tournament (does it ever, really?). And since she will have half my genetics, she will probably arrive with 2 minutes to go in a one possession Elite 8 heavy-weight bout, and I'll go from being locked in to not being able to name a single team in the final four 48 hours later. And I am okay with that... I think.

But as the old saying goes: "smoke em if you got em". So as long as we remain DINKs for a few more days, the picks will be coming in hot, the takes will be flying, and all I want as my own personal push present is my daughter to enter a world where motherfucking Purdue is not still alive in March Madness. Yup, it's a year later and I still can't stand those guys.

But the first round is not about Purdue and it's not about your annoying coworker from Duke saying "this is our year" for the umpteenth time. It's about the ride, the journey, the adrenaline, and Kathy from accounting thinking she still has a shot at this year's bracket pool after starting 3 for 3 and not realizing what picking 6 of 8 elite eight teams as double digit seeds will do to you. It's fine though, let Kathy have her moment. The first Thursday is for Kathy, it's not for Dukey Danny's Patagucci-wearing ass.

So let's lock in. The emails can wait. The games cannot. Because the first round isn’t just basketball, it’s sensory overload. Four screens, 16 games, and about 47 moments where you go from “I'm seeing the board well” to “I may never recover from this.” It’s the annual reminder that all of our research, trends, and “systems” are hanging on by a thread the second a double-digit seed gets hot for six minutes. And this year feels especially primed for it.

I’ve spent the entire lead-up talking to group chats and friends into my One March Madness Philosophy: Three point shooting, experience, guard play, turnover margins, and who can actually create offense late in games. And yes, those things matter. They always do…until they don’t. One whistle, one run, one guy you’ve never heard of turning into Ali Farokhmanesh for a half, and suddenly the numbers don’t feel so reliable.

So while everyone else is chasing upsets for the sake of it, the goal here is a little different: find the spots where we can have a little fun and the chaos is actually predictable. Or at least… predictable enough.

Clear your schedule, get the quad box going , and settle in. This is the best two days in sports, and it rarely plays out the way we expect.

Ohio State (8) vs TCU (9)

Ohio State -2.5, O/U 146.5

First game of the day has the potential to be tight all the way through, and it could start an all-time first window as each favorite in the first four games of the day could fall. I'm not sure that will happen, but I am sure the first domino will fall to open the door for chaos. I am sure because the last time I bet against TCU, I had to drive two TCU alumni back from the game in San Antonio to Austin in the dead of night and then proceed to not be allowed in an elevator at work for a whole month. All because Lincoln Riley is a soft-ass coach who cares more about his QB looking cute than he does about having an ounce of physicality or toughness on a team. I mean it's honestly despicable. 3rd and 20 on the edge of field goal range, one stop to potentially win the game, and you miss six tackles and let a running back take it 35 yards to end it? You make me sick, Coach Riley. Take a hike. And the Buckeyes? Might as well join them. You don't get rich betting against Jamie Dixon. Fire up the Hypnotoad.

The Pick: TCU +2.5.

Nebraska (4) vs Troy (13)

Nebraska -13.5, O/U 137.5

Outside of Miami in/of/at Ohio, Nebraska has been the darling team this year. The program has never won a tournament game, and they have a pretty good chance to end that streak this year. And god damn that toad above is distracting the hell out of me. Please scroll down, he will make you cross-eyed. Anywhos. The Cornhuskers. All I know is I want Jon Rothstein to come through on opening a bar tab in Lincoln, so I'm pulling for them. But 13.5 is a lot to cover for a team who has never won here before, and tends to play at a slow pace. However, they possess an overwhelming 3-point dependant offense and commit fewer fouls than almost anyone in the tournament, so they could easily get it done when it counts. It's a tough number. I just think a slow first 5-10 minutes with jitters on both sides sets us behind the over pace early, and the Huskers keep the D up til the final whistle to get the program's first W.

The Pick: Under 137.5.

Louisville (6) vs South Florida (11)

Louisville -4.5, O/U 165.5

Louisville is one of those teams everyone convinces themselves is “safe.” Solid, experienced, brand name, not going to do anything stupid. The kind of team you advance without thinking twice…which is usually when things start to go sideways.

South Florida is not fun to play. But they are fun to watch if you don't mind whiplash. Frantic pace, chucking shots, causing chaos. They play like an over-coached middle-school JCC team using homemade analytics and knowing little Martin Shapiro has no left hand and is only starting because his dad's company sponsors the league's uniforms. And sure, Ben and Noah Cohn (the splash twins) shoots the lights out, but how effective can they be if Marty's gotta break a double team to get them the ball? I really don't know where this JCC analogy is going, but it makes sense to me. 4.5 seems like a lot in what will probably go to the final few possessions, and yes some late fouling can give you hope, but I don't want to rely on that here. South Florida is guard dominant and shoots a ton of 3s. Gimmie the Bulls.

The Pick: South Florida +4.5

Bonus Pick: South Florida Moneyline +180

Wisconsin (5) vs High Point (12)

Wisconsin -10.5, O/U 164.5

Wisconsin is everything we like. They take care of the ball, play through experienced guards, and generally avoid the kind of chaos that ruins a Thursday. It’s very mature. Very adult. Business like. But these High Point boys would prefer literally anything else. They average 87 per game, push pace, and force turnovers at a top-50 rate nationally. Which is exactly what you want if you’re holding an over ticket.

And then there’s Chase Johnston. He's shot 200 3's this year and made like 2 two-point shots. I'm not really sure he knows you can take the ball inside the three point line. If you're dad thinks Steph Curry ruined basketball, don't let him watch my boy Chase. Sure he plays 13 minutes a game, but if there is a 2025 Jack Gohlke, it's Chase. Wisconsin will get theirs. High Point will make sure there are enough possessions for everyone to eat. And Johnston might even launch a three from the bench mid-game for the hell of it.

The Pick: Over 164.5.

Duke (1) vs Siena (16)

Duke -28.5, O/U 135.5

I have a lot to say about Duke. But I'm not going to waste it buried in a 16-game write up when they're 4 touch down favorites. According to my sources (me, just now, making it up) it must be embarrassing to be favored in an NCAA tournament game by a larger spread than your football team has ever been favored. Yea. Good one, Joe. That'll shut up the Dukies. Duke and Sienna are both hitting unders at well above average rate down the stretch, but Duke has also been playing some solid teams in that mix. They put 100 on Notre Lame, hung 93 on NC State and 101 on Syracuse. They crush bad teams, they just fold like a spider in water when the lights get bright. I'll stop there. Points fest for the Blue Devils, and if Siena can't score 38, they should disband the program.

The Pick: Over 135.5.

Vanderbilt (5) vs McNeese State (12)

Vanderbilt -11.5, O/U 150.5

Last year, McNeese State's Amir Khan was proof we are doomed as a society. It was a fun story for all of 4 hours until you Twitter nerds, Tik-Tok losers, and every other platform filled with people who hate fun decided they had enough and turned on the kid. We don't let things ride out anymore. Amir was fun, it was a good story, and you hated him before the team even bowed out. Why couldn't we wait to quit on an internet darling until like his brothers fight opposing fans in the stands, his mom becomes obsessed with Theo Von, and he says "F the voters" when he doesn't win an award?... or something like that. I'm not referencing anyone in particular here. Purely hypothetical. Unfortunately I have to take the Commodores here, they shoot way better and both teams force a ton of turnovers, so it'll be about converting opportunities. I don't think McNeese can keep it close being loose with the ball, not shooting enough, and playing at a snail's pace.

The Pick: Vanderbilt -11.5 AND Under 150.5.

Pause... FIIIIIIIINNNNNSSSS UUUUP!

Okay now back to it.

Michigan State (3) vs North Dakota State (14)

Michigan State -16.5, O/U 143.5

Earlier this year, North Dakota State beat the College of Saint Scholastica 111-38. I tried to find a joke about this but turns out this college actually exists in Minnesota and might be the most Catholic school of all time. Their logo references the holy trinity and the Virgin Mary and has a passage from the book of Proverbs in Latin. If that's not Catholic enough for you, their mascot is a Saint Bernard. Yup, they made the dog Catholic. Truly shows how little I believe in NDSU when I spent my research time here looking into their November 12 opponent. Sure the Catholic Church moved the celebration of the birthday of Jesus to Winter to fit Roman pagan holidays. But the one calendar all faiths can agree on is January-February-IZZO-April.

The Pick: Michigan State -16.5.

Arkansas (4) vs Hawaii (13)

Arkansas -15.5, O/U 160.5

This could be a fun one. When Arkansas has the ball, it's a top-5 efficient offense going against a top-10 efficient defense. When Hawaii has the ball, it's the 178th most efficient offense going against the 202nd most efficient defense. So how does this shake out? Well Arkansas is top 5 in assist/turnover, and Hawaii is 300th. So I guess a good offense beats a good defense? or a bad defense survives a putrid offense? What makes it more confusing is both teams are top 25 in pace. Idk how that adds up really, I'm not Mr. Kenneth Pom. But what I do know is Darius Acuff Jr. If you're someone who likes ball but doesn't tune in until march, Arkansas is your team and Acuff is your man. This freshman does not make a wrong decision, and I fully back him to cancel out Coach Cal's penchant for puking in his lap in the first round. Woo Pig.

The Pick: Arkansas -15.5 and Over 160.5

North Carolina (6) vs VCU (11)

North Carolina -2.5, O/U 153.5

This is a game where you catch your coworkers napping. They may see the carolina blue and auto-sharpie, but you remember 2011. What seed was VCU that year? Oh ya, 11. Now they were a First Four team that year and went to the Final Four, and I'm not saying history repeats itself, but it does rhyme. VCU is 16-1 in their last 17, and North Carolina's best player is out and their next up in usage are a Center and a Guard that shoots 28% from 3. Ew. I'll pass.

The Pick: VCU +2.5

Michigan (1) vs Howard (16)

Michigan -30.5, O/U 150.5

It's been a long time since Michigan were happy to share a sideline with a Howard. Assuming the name on the front of the jersey doesn't give the Wolverines PTSD, this should be business as usual. Now with 30 and the hook, you never know how the last 5 minutes will treat you. However, Howard turns the ball over at a decent rate, both teams give up offensive rebounds, and Michigan has put up triple digits 8 times this season, including against two tournament teams + Auburn. Most people pencil in the 1 seed and move on, but this is where we double-down and take our shot.

The Pick: Michigan -30.5 and OVER 150.5

BYU (6) vs Texas (11)

BYU -1.5, O/U 159.5

If you watched the first 39 minutes of their play-in game, you might understand why, when attending our first UT basketball game this year, in the middle of the first half, my wife looked at me with a straight face and full honesty and asked me, "Wait, is Texas basketball D-1?". No, she does not know sports. And yes, they were playing Southern with about 25 people in the stands. But still. That was awesome. Horns down, my lady.

As for the game, BYU is limping into this tournament, but they still have one of the best players in the country and have beaten some title-contending teams in between losses to UCF, Cincinnati, and Baylor. A strong showing in the tournament tells me they will have no trouble moving on here, although I doubt they get much further.

The Pick: BYU -1.5

St. Mary's (7) vs Texas A&M (10)

St Mary's -2.5, O/U 147.5

This is probably the biggest clash of styles in the tournament. Texas rank 11th in pace to St Mary's 303rd. It makes sense that this game is scheduled during rush hour, because if you're on the 405 or the 10 at a dead stop and are watching the other side of the freeway fly by, you really aren't missing the game. You're kind of actually playing in it. But while they clash on styles, they meet on metrics with similar offensive and defensive efficiency metrics on both sides and similar 3-pt percentage. Give me the aggies here as they have been forcing teams to bend to their style all year, and while it hasn't always resulted in wins, it will result in forcing St Mary's to play their suffocating defense on the run and out of breath, which I'd be shocked if it held up all 40 minutes.

The Pick: Texas A&M +2.5 AND Over 147.5

One more before the home stretch... FIIIIIIIINNNNNSSSS UUUUP!

Okay now back to it.

Illinois (3) vs Penn (14)

Illinois -25.5, O/U 151.5

Illinois vs Penn. Probably the most boring match up school wise in the whole first round. Just two schools filled with students and alumni who all have Napolean complex and both somehow think they are smarter than you. There's nothing interesting about either of these brands as a whole, and this matchup belongs in the college fencing tournament, not basketball. Alas, they have to play, and this one will be over in a blink. Illinois are the 2nd best team in the country at not committing fouls, top 10 in preventing opponent offensive rebound, and take more 3's. There is nothing that leads me to believe Penn can come anywhere close here. Illinois are coming og beating Oregon by 26, USC by 36, and Northwestern by 40. I'd say all 3 of those teams would be favored over Penn. Give me the Illini 9 ways.

The Pick: Illinois -25.5 AND Over 151.5

Georgia (8) vs St Louis (9)

Georgia -2.5, O/U 169.5

This is the last competitive game of the day (I think), and boy do I love having a total this high. Both teams are top 20 in offensive efficiency, and St Louis makes up for Georgia's slightly faster pace and offensive metrics by being top 20 in defensive efficiency too. If you're looking for a bet that's a "lock", this is not your game (none of these really are, but that's not the point). It's a coin flip to me, and if I'm getting 2.5 on one side, I'll take it. Give me the Billikens. Which, by the way, isn't a real thing, it's a mythical creature that's supposed to mean good luck. And boy will I need all the luck I can get in the 13th game of the day.

The Pick: St. Louis +2.5

Gonzaga (3) vs Kenesaw St (14)

Gonzaga -21.5, O/U 154.5

If someone in your life with a spouse and/or kids tries to drop some Kenesaw state knowledge on you this week, send them help. Anyone not named Jon Rothstein that has watched enough Kenesaw State this year to have an opinion needs some serious help getting their life together. Think you know Kenesaw? Well, you don't because I've spelled it wrong this whole time. It's Kennesaw. A team that went .500 in conference play and had a losing record when not playing on their home court. How they finagled a 14 seed is beyond me. Gonzaga is having a down year and will not go far, but they cruise here. Also Under. Trust me, Kennesaw will score like 43 points, maybe.

The Pick: Gonzaga -21.5 AND Under 154.5

Houston (2) vs Idaho (15)

Houston -23.5, O/U 137.5

Samuel L Jackson once said "You're only as good as your last performance". Well thank the Lord that's not true for March Madness, because we end Thursday with an absolute stinker. To be honest, I kind of like that. Flip this on one when you're in bed, fall asleep at half time, and you won't miss anything. Yes, 15 seeds have pulled shockers in the past, but it will not happen here. Not against this Houston team who has all the motivation in the world after last year. No non-Power 4 team has scored more than 60 on the Cougars this year and that won't change here. I expect Houston to take control, suffocate Idaho, and rest their horses early. No need to score style points here. Yes, life is too short to bet the under, but if you're gonna be asleep anyways, might be the best time to take one.

The Pick: Under 137.5

Exhale. We did it. See you Friday for the next marathon, pending I'm not a father then.